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  • Mar
    16
    President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meet with small business owners and community lenders on Monday.

    President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meet with small business owners and community lenders on Monday.

    President Barack Obama, trying to contain a political firestorm, instructed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner “pursue every legal avenue” to block $165 million in bonuses to AIG executives who were in part responsible for the company’s near collapse.

    “This is a corporation that finds itself in financial distress due to recklessness and greed,” Mr. Obama said ahead of announcing a plan to rescue small businesses through a raft of new lending options. “Under these circumstances, it’s hard to understand how derivative traders at AIG warranted any bonuses, much less $165 million in extra pay. How do they justify this outrage to the taxpayers who are keeping the company afloat?”

    “This isn’t just a matter of dollars and cents. It’s about our fundamental values,” he added.

    Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo asked AIG to provide details on who’s receiving bonuses in its AIG Financial Products subsidiary by 4 EDT p.m. on Monday or face subpoenas. He has blamed the unit for the insurer’s near collapse last year.

    For the president, AIG’s announcement that it would award huge bonuses to the executives involved in the exotic financial instruments that forced the bailout has become a critical test. If anger at the bonuses consumes the electorate, any additional funds the administration might need for its financial rescue could become impossible to extract from Congress.

    “All across the country, there are people who work hard and meet their responsibilities every day, without the benefit of government bailouts or multi-million dollar bonuses. And all they ask is that everyone, from Main Street to Wall Street to Washington, play by the same rules,” Mr. Obama said.

    In Mr. Cuomo’s letter to AIG Chief Executive Edward Liddy on Monday, the New York attorney general requested a list of individuals who are to receive payments under the unit’s retention plan, as well as details of
    Mr. Obama, for weeks now, has been trying to project himself as a defender of Main Street, not Wall Street, even as he tries to explain why more funding for ailing big banks might be necessary. Monday was supposed to be devoted to a small business rescue rollout.

    The small business package includes raising the federal guarantee on small business loans through the Small Business Administration to 90% from the 50% to 85% traditionally covered. Messers. Obama and Geithner were also to announce that the government is prepared to purchase up to $15 billion in small business loans that are bundled into securities and sold on the open market.

    SBA loan fees are also to be temporarily suspended.

    The White House is saying small business owners are being crushed by a credit market that is drying up through no fault of their own. In essence, these businesses are the victims of companies like AIG, which used instruments like credit deferred swaps to insure speculation and risk.

    But that message is being swamped by the furor over the AIG bonuses. Rather than tamp down that anger, Mr. Obama has decided to show his sympathy.

    each individuals job description, information on their performance and copies of any contracts requiring the payments. The attorney general asked that AIG provide the information by 4 p.m. EDT Monday.

    “We were disturbed to learn over the weekend of AIG’s plans to pay millions of dollars to members of the Financial Products subsidiary through its Financial Products Retention Plan,” Mr. Cuomo said. “Financial Products was, of course, the division of AIG that led to its meltdown and the huge infusion of taxpayer funds to save the firm.”

    Mr. Cuomo said he’s looking into whether any of the individuals receiving payments were involved in conduct that led to the insurer’s near collapse; whether the contracts may be unenforceable for fraud or other reasons; and whether the payments may be consider fraudulent conveyances under state law.

    “Covering up the details of these payments breeds further cynicism and distrust in our already shaken financial system,” Mr. Cuomo said.

    “We are in contact with the Attorney General and will of course respond to his request,” Mark Herr, an AIG spokesman, said in a statement.

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  • Mar
    16
    Nation’s most populous state dealing with high jobless rate
     
    CONCORD, CA - DECEMBER 17: Job seekers wait in line to enter the "Put Your Talent to Work" job and resource expo

    CONCORD, CA - DECEMBER 17: Job seekers wait in line to enter the "Put Your Talent to Work" job and resource expo

    California, a state so large that its economy dwarfs most nations, now has another, less cheery, claim to fame: It is one of the states hardest hit by the country’s unemployment woes.

    The California jobless rate hit 10.1 percent in January, up from 5.9 percent when the recession began in December 2007. Only Michigan, South Carolina and Rhode Island reported a higher unemployment rate for the first month of the new year, when the national average was 7.6 percent.

    While other states with exceptionally high unemployment rates are suffering from severe downturns in specific sectors that power their economies — such as Michigan’s auto industry — in California, the state is dealing with a broad array of problems, more similar to the country as a whole, economists say.

    If you follow the trend of our employment compared to the national employment, it tracks it pretty closely,” said Michael Bernick, former director of the state Employment Development Department and now a labor lawyer. “It’s gone up sharply just as the national rate has, and we’ve continually been higher than the national rate.”

    To find one big reason why, you need look no further than the foreclosure signs that line the streets in many of the state’s suburbs and exurbs.

    California enjoyed one of the hottest housing markets in the country during the boom, and it was one of the first and hardest-hit by the housing bust. As foreclosures have mounted and homebuilding has dried up, the state has shed construction jobs at an alarming rate. It lost about 130,000 construction jobs from January 2008 through January 2009 alone, according to preliminary calculations from state officials.

    But California’s economic woes have spread into other areas as well. The state’s manufacturing sector has shed more than 80,000 jobs over the same period, and its financial sector has cut more than 48,000 jobs, according to the preliminary state data. That’s creating a tough job market for every class of worker, from unskilled laborers to white-collar college graduates.

    “It goes across sectors,” said Bernick, adding that it has become common for as many as 40 people to apply for one job opening.

    Some argue that the state’s jobless picture may be less bleak than it appears. Howard Roth, chief economist for the state’s Department of Finance, said a change in the way the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the jobless rate has often meant that the state’s monthly numbers initially appear worse than they are, only to be revised later.

    Still he acknowledges that California’s jobless rate is likely to remain higher than the rest of the country as it continues to feel the recession more profoundly.

    In addition to the housing bust, the state’s financial sector has been hit by the banking crisis, and its many businesses are grappling with the effects of the credit crunch that has squeezed access to financing.

    Other sectors of the economy, including technology and tourism, also are suffering as people pull back on spending. The manufacturing industry downturn could be problematic because California’s high cost of land, electricity and other resources make it a less attractive place to locate.

    “It’s pretty expensive to manufacture something in California,” Roth said.

    The state government also is suffering from a severe budget crunch, which could eventually result in public-sector jobs being cut and further the cycle of economic worries. A 3-year-old drought is hurting the agriculture industry, which Roth said accounts for 5 percent of the state’s economy.

    The healthcare and education sector is one of the few bright spots in the state’s bleak jobs picture, and even that sector isn’t faring as well as some would hope.

    This is a state that people come to
    Steven Levy, of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, believes one major reason the state’s jobless rate comes in higher than the rest of the nation’s is because of a constant influx of new immigrants. He estimates that about 200,000 new legal immigrants come to the state each year, and in this market he says many of those workers may have immediately joined the ranks of the unemployed. The state data shows that more than 300,000 people were added to the labor force last year.

    “The unemployment rate is higher because this is a state that people come to,” Levy said.

    On the other hand, Levy believes unskilled immigrants who entered the country illegally are probably returning home because work is drying up.

    Levy expects the state’s jobless rate to continue to edge up, and he warns that it could take some time for things to stabilize and eventually turn around.

    “We’re no different than the nation — the numbers are going to get worse before they get better,” he said.

    Still, he and other economists take solace in the fact that the state rebounded quickly and powerfully from other recessions including the downturn in the 1980s when it was hit especially hard because of steep cuts to its aerospace industry.

    This time around, the job cuts are much more widespread, but they also have come at a much faster pace than in previous recessions.

    The government stimulus package may help stem job losses, although some don’t expect it to be a major job creator. Bernick says the state should benefit from its diverse economy as well as a history of entrepreneurship.

    “We do have high costs, (traffic) congestion (and) higher taxes, but we have such an entrepreneurial ethos and entrepreneurial culture — and part of that’s an immigrant culture — and that’s really what keeps the economy afloat and would be our hope for the future,” Bernick said.

    California economists also note that past recessions brought on doomsday talk of permanently high unemployment rates and other long-term woes for the state, none of which came to fruition. This time around, the state is expected to recover more slowly than in recessions past, but most still see better times ahead.

    “I’m pretty confident that we’ll come out of it. We’re pretty resourceful people,” said Roth, the state economist. “But for now, it’s a little hard to forecast exactly when that will happen.”

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  • Mar
    16
    Large apartment complexes abandoned to receivership and unruly weeds
     
    Chandler, Ariz., police officers confront residents of the Alante at the Islands apartment complex last week at a meeting called to discuss what the renters would do next.

    Chandler, Ariz., police officers confront residents of the Alante at the Islands apartment complex last week at a meeting called to discuss what the renters would do next.

    Nicholle Krause first noticed the weeds sprouting in the usually well-manicured grounds of her 320-unit apartment complex in Chandler, Ariz., in December. Soon, signs of neglect began multiplying: Garbage spilled over from the dumpsters, the water in the swimming pool turned a slimy pea green and the grounds were infested by swarms of bees — especially alarming because Krause is severely allergic to bee stings.

    “I couldn’t even go outside to enjoy where I live,” said Krause, a 21-year-old office worker who pays $827 a month for a one-bedroom apartment with garage space. “I shouldn’t have to pay $800 a month to live in a … hole.”

    It wasn’t until early March that Krause and other residents learned why the complex – the alluringly named Alante at the Islands — was rapidly going to seed. The property owner, Irvine, Calif.-based Bethany Holdings Group, had abandoned the complex and a dozen other large rental properties in the greater Phoenix area after defaulting on hundreds of millions of dollars in loans.

    As panicked renters in Arizona began holding public meetings to explore whether they could walk away from leases, recoup security deposits or sue, it became clear that the scale

    of the mess was far larger than they had realized. Companies under the Bethany umbrella owned at least 60 — and possibly many more — large residential complexes across the nation, all of which are now believed to be in bankruptcy or receivership, potentially affecting tens of thousands of renters.

    The Bethany Group meltdown highlights how few protections exist for renters caught in the foreclosure crisis. That’s a situation that some experts say is becoming much more common.

    “People were paying attention to the single family resident market, the 100 percent, no-down loans,” said West Coast real estate investor and broker Virgil Hobbs, who is bidding on some of the distressed Bethany properties on behalf of clients. “And then beyond that wave is the commercial market, which is what you’re now seeing now.”

    When commercial residential properties change hands, tenants typically don’t feel much impact. But in this case, where properties were simply abandoned, the situation was chaotic.

    Threats of utility shut-offs

    In one abandoned Bethany property — the 500-plus-unit Granite Bay in Phoenix — tenants were served notice by the water company on March 6 that their water would be shut off in five days because of an outstanding $64,000 bill. Alarmed residents only found out shortly before the deadline that a Las Vegas company, 707 Management Services Inc., had been appointed as receiver for the property and would see that the water remained on.

    Other Bethany complexes were threatened with gas or electricity shut-offs due to non-payment of bills. And staff at many of the Phoenix area properties said they had not been paid for a month or more before courts began appointing receivers to assume control of the complexes.

    The precise size of the Bethany rental empire is difficult to establish because the company owns apartment complexes both under its corporate name and numerous affiliated companies.

    At least 18 related entities — limited liability corporations, or LLCs, registered in Delaware that own properties in Texas — filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this month, leaving open the possibility that they will reorganize and try to pay creditors.

    But many other Bethany properties are now in the hands of court-appointed receivers, indicating that Bethany has essentially abandoned them. The receivers — appointed to represent creditors —are charged with preserving any remaining value of the assets, managing them during foreclosure and recovering whatever they can for lenders, typically by selling at a deep discount.

    Bethany CEO Greg Garmon could not be reached for comment. Answering services at Bethany’s main line and Garmon’s office said voicemail boxes were full. The Bethany Group’s Web site no longer works, though the cached version of its introductory page still asserts that “It’s all about people and their homes.” The main office number at Alante at the Islands no longer works.

    San Diego company handling 24 properties
    San Diego based Trigild Inc. has been appointed receiver for 24 of the Bethany properties, including seven in the Phoenix area. Just 13 of the properties under Trigild’s supervision represent more than $500 million in loan defaults, according to Trigild President Bill Hoffman. Those cases are being handled by five different courts in Arizona, California, Colorado and Florida. Five other large properties in Phoenix are in receivership under 707 Management.

    Hobbs, the real estate broker, said he approached Bethany several months ago to inquire whether the company was interested in selling some of its properties after hearing rumors that the company was in trouble. He said he was told that the company’s portfolio contained more than 80 properties. But he said the company denied it was experiencing any financial difficulty.

    “We walked away scratching our heads, saying they either got their heads in the sand … or they don’t care about (thousands of) tenants,” he recalled. “Don’t tell me they are just going to let the ship sink.”

    Hoffman, the president of Trigild Inc., which is now responsible for Alante at the Islands among other Bethany properties, said the appointment of receivers by the courts should be seen as good news by tenants.

    “The tenants are going to be better off with us,” Hoffman promised. “They will see improvements very quickly. The properties will be clean, and functioning properly within a few days.”

    As a practical matter, a receiver has a strong incentive to keep tenants happy. They are the source of a property’s cash flow, and occupancy rate is a key factor in determining value. And by the second week of March, some upkeep issues had been addressed at the Bethany complexes. The Alante swimming pool was cleaned and trash pickup resumed. Trigild also is paying former Bethany employees who stayed on in the complexes, according to Hoffman.

    But by law, Hoffman said, the receiver is not liable for security deposits from renters who signed leases before the receivership went into effect.

    “There is no obligation for the receiver or the lender to give (tenants) deposits that they don’t have,” said Hoffman. If the deposits had been handed over to Trigild it would be different, he said, “but that owner (Bethany) has obviously spent that money or done something with it.”

    Chances that tenants will get back the deposit are slim, said Ed Valenzuela, executive director of the Arizona Fair Housing Center.

    ‘Most of the time, the tenant is out of luck’
    “They could go to court and sue (Bethany) for it but if the property is in foreclosure where is the money going to come from?” he said. “Most of the time, the tenant is out of luck.”

    That’s especially true in Arizona.

    A recent report by the National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty ranked the state among the worst in the nation for renters living in a property that is foreclosed upon.

    For example, in Arizona and at least 30 other states, there is no legal requirement to notify tenants that the property is going through foreclosure, it said. And only New Jersey and the District of Columbia explicitly preserve tenants’ rights in the lease after a foreclosure.

    The report, co-sponsored by the National Low Income Housing Coalition, warned that renters affected by foreclosure are at greater risk of homelessness, and called for federal and state governments to beef up protections. Legislation to do that has been introduced in Arizona, but it has not yet been acted upon.

    Until now, the biggest problem facing renters has been summary eviction following a foreclosure. But the demise of the Bethany group raises different problems, since the new owner would have a wide range of options with a commercial property.

    “The real issue is who is going to take over the property and what are they going to do with it?” said Ken Volk, who runs the Arizona Tenants Advocacy and Association in Tempe and has been advising some of the Bethany renters. “These tenants, if they leave, they could be held to the lease if the new owner wants to run it as a rental. If they don’t want to, the landlord could terminate the lease and say you have to get out, very often within five days.”

    Volk has been organizing residents at the Bethany complexes to press for better treatment and has helped others legally break leases — a service for which he charges a fee.

    That incenses Hoffman, who argued that such activities could amount to illegal interference.

    “If he’s going to advise people to break the lease I’ll have him before the judge,” he said. “He’s certainly not going to interfere in any way with our possession and control of the asset.”

    A confrontation with police
    Trigild called Chandler police last week to alert them to a meeting at which Volk and about 100 Alante at the Islands residents were discussing possible next steps on property adjacent to the apartment complex. According to witnesses, eight or nine officers pushed their way into the crowd to disperse it, prompting a shouting match among tenants, police, the apartment manager and Volk before the meeting broke up.

    “It was intimidating,” Volk said of the confrontation. But he said he will continue working with the tenants and dismissed Trigild’s criticism that he is intervening simply to profit off the tenants’ fears.

    “I might make a little,” he said. “But the motivation is to help people. It’s what I do.”

    He said the primary service he provides it to help renters understand how to legally break leases.

    “By and large tenants … have no clue what to do,” he said. “They figure the morality of their situation will carry them over into the legality, and it doesn’t. There are very precise legal requirements. Unless you address them very carefully, a lawyer on the other side will get in your way.”

    Nicholle Krause, the Alante resident, found that out the hard way. She threatened to withhold her March rent when her complaints about the poor condition of the property were ignored. That prompted the complex manager to threaten her with eviction, which would make it harder for her to rent elsewhere. She backed down, and paid.

    She then sent the manager a letter stating that she would move out in 10 days because of the landlord had not fulfilled its obligations to keep the property in livable condition. But an attorney for the company responded that her letter did not meet legal requirements for breaking the lease.

    “I want to leave … but I would need an attorney,” said Krause, explaining that even with order returning to Alante, the uncertainty of not knowing what a new owner might do with the property continues to plague her. She said she intends to move out when her lease expires in June, if not sooner. “I don’t know if the cost and the exhaustion (that it would entail) are worth it.”

    As the foreclosure crisis continues to expand, many other renters around the country are likely to find themselves in the same situation as Krause.

    “We have a bunch of apartment complexes around the country,” said Hoffman, the president of Trigild, Inc. “We haven’t got anywhere near the bottom. … If I look at our pipeline, it would normally be about 12 (to) 15 properties. We’re looking at a couple hundred at this stage.”

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  • Mar
    7

    pay-cutNEW YORK (Reuters) – With “no end in sight” for U.S. job losses amid a recession that could stretch into 2010, American workers will soon have to contend with another blow to their confidence: stagnant, or even falling wages.

    Job seekers — already coping with the highest unemployment rate in a quarter century, their savings mugged by a plunging stock market — can also expect lower pay once they land a new job, labor market experts say, because the current downturn shows no signs of turning around anytime soon.

    “There’s no end in sight,” said Tig Gilliam, chief executive of Adecco Group North America, the third-largest U.S. employer behind Wal-Mart Stores and the postal service.

    “March is going to be the same, and I don’t see anything that will make April better.”

    Lower wages, in turn, could further erode the outlook for the U.S. economy by hurting consumers’ spending power.

    The government’s February employment report showed 651,000 jobs eliminated outside the farm sector, while losses in the previous two months were revised upward. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1 percent, highest since 1983.

    Job losses in professional services categories are accelerating, and temporary payrolls — typically a leading indicator — show no signs of improving, Gilliam said.

    The temp sector, where losses preceded the decline in the wider labor market by a year, must stabilize before any hint of a wider jobs recovery.

    Temporary workers as a percentage of the total workforce are down to 1.42 percent, a level not seen since May 1994. The bottoming of this metric typically correlates with the end of recession, said BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeffrey Silber in a research note.

    “Unfortunately, we’re not there yet,” Silber said.

    TEMP PAYROLLS DOWN

    Temp payrolls are down by a quarter from a year ago, and have declined for 26 months in a row. In the recession of the 1980s — the one many economists say most compares to the current situation — temp employment fell by a third from peak to trough.

    To be sure, job openings still exist. Adecco cited engineering and technical job postings, as well as legal and finance positions, including in the mortgage business where a pickup in refinancing activity has spurred demand for sales and processing professionals.

    But while job openings remain, employers are increasingly able to keep a lid on wages, further stretching consumers. The latest jobs report showed wage growth slowed in January and February from its pace at the end of last year.

    According to Adecco, many clients are looking to hire people at lower rates than in the past, with the biggest wage pressure at the lower end of the pay scale, he said, among people earning around $10 or $12 per hour.

    Small business salaries posted their biggest drop last month since December 2004, according to SurePayroll, which handles payroll for 25,000 small businesses.

    “Declining salaries make it easier for businesses to survive in the short term, but decreased consumer purchasing power is a recipe for disaster over the long term,” said SurePayroll President Michael Alter. U.S. small business paychecks average $31,317, down about $1,300 over the past year.

    LONG RECESSION

    “We’re going to see continued contraction, at least to the end of the year, and possibly the first quarter of next year,” said J.P. Donlon, editor of Chief Executive magazine, whose monthly survey finds CEO confidence at a record low. Seventy-seven percent of CEOs expect jobs to continue to deteriorate over the next quarter.

    “They just don’t see any horizon at this stage,” Donlon said, adding that the monthly survey, which dates back to 2002, typically precedes GDP and employment trends by about six months.

    The unemployment rate could easily reach double digits, and if it tops 9 percent, will suggest the Obama Administration stimulus package is not working, Adecco’s Gilliam said.

    He cited a recent conversation with government procurement lawyers who expressed concern it could take nine months to dole out money to help the economy.

    “You see the market voting on the reaction to the Obama policies already,” he said. “You’re not getting great confidence.”

    Confidence in the stimulus among workers, by contrast, remains high, with nearly three-quarters telling an Adecco/Harris interactive survey they are optimistic the plan will boost jobs.

    The outlook for job pay, however, is grim.

    “Wages are going to take a hit,” said Chad Sowash, vice president of the Direct Employers Association, a nonprofit that represents the interests of senior recruiters.

    Sowash met Friday with Fortune 500 employers in the healthcare, IT and defense sectors, who told him anyone looking for a job now should expect to earn 10 percent to 20 percent less, depending on the position and the industry.

    “The days of springboarding a career into another $10,000 a year, this is just not the situation for that,” Sowash said.

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  • Mar
    6
    Some forecasters say jobless rate may rise through 2010 to 10 percent
     
    People crowd a job fair sponsored by employment website Monster.com as part of their "Keep America Working" tour at a hotel in New York's Times Square on March 5.

    People crowd a job fair sponsored by employment website Monster.com as part of their "Keep America Working" tour at a hotel in New York's Times Square on March 5.

    Bad as Friday’s grim jobs report was — 8.1 percent unemployment rate, 651,000 jobs lost in February, 4.4 million shed since the recession began — the labor market’s pain is likely to continue until well into 2010.

    Wall Street economists, who are not typically paid to see the glass half-empty, warn that more bad news is coming in the months ahead.

    “The economy is in a tailspin. Businesses are jettisoning jobs at an unprecedented pace,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “The labor market remains in free-fall,” said Nigel Gault Chief US Economist IHS Global Insight. “The recession is deepening; there is no sign yet even that the rate of contraction is slowing.”

    “Horrendous! There can be no other word to describe this employment report,” said Ryding. “Unfortunately, the weekly jobless claims data suggest more of the same is coming for March.

    Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost 4.4 million jobs, more than half of which occurred in the past four months. That brings the total to 12.5 million full-time jobs and the official unemployment rate to 8.1 percent.

    Another 8.6 million have been forced to work part time for “economic reasons” as employer cut back hours to cut costs. The number of so-called “discouraged workers” – those who are out of work and have given up looking for a job – has more than doubled since last year. When those two groups are included, the jobless rate jumped by almost a full percentage point this month to 14.8 percent.

    On Monday, economists at Goldman Sachs said they expect the headline unemployment rate to continue to rise to 9.5 percent by the end of this year and then go to 10 percent by the end of 2010.

    jobs

    Coming on top of trillions of dollars in lost home values and trillions more in stock market losses, the collapse of the job market is now fueling a downward economic spiral. With less spending power and fearful of further job losses, consumers have sharply cut spending that had made up some 70 percent of Gross Domestic Product.

    The contraction appears to be accelerating. The latest government figures show GDP falling at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the last three months of 2008. Some economists now believe that if the pace of jobs losses continues — they currently average more than 600,000 a month — the economic contraction could be more severe in the first quarter of this year.

    Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the economic data “show little sign of improvement” and that “labor market conditions may have worsened further in recent weeks.”

    The Obama administration is counting on a package of measure to get the economy moving again and employers back in a hiring mood. The list includes an almost $800 billion package of spending and tax cuts; a $70 billion bailout program for the nation’s troubled banks; and a $75 billion effort to head off an estimated nine million home foreclosures.

    “We have a responsibility to act and that’s what I intend to do as the president of the United States of America,” Obama told a graduating class of new police officers in Ohio Friday.

    But it will be at least several months before the stimulus spending begins to flow through the economy. In the meantime, layoffs will likely continue.

    “I think businesses have already made up their minds,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Eonomy.com. “They did their forecast for revenues for 2009 in late 2008. They marked them down, and now they’re trying to get their cost structure down. And that means cutting payroll. No matter what the stimulus number was, I think we would see these job losses anyway.”

    Zandi said there may also be a lag effect in the jobless numbers because laid off workers given severance packages are counted as employed until those payments run out.

    But the impact of the stimulus spending will be muted as long as the banking system and credit markets remain crippled.

    Despite some signs of life in corners of the credit markets, which shut down last fall, banks are still burdened with massive losses from bad loans. Much of the investor-funded market for consumer lending like credit cards and car loans remains frozen.

    While some large companies have had success selling fresh debt, the cost for others remains high. One measure of that is the price of so-called credit default swaps, a kind of insurance policy against a large corporate borrower defaulting on its debt.

    The cost of credit defaults swaps for Berkshire Hathaway, for example, show that investors think the company run by legendary investor Warren Buffett is a riskier bet than bonds issued by Vietnam, according to Michael Hartnett, co-head of International Investment Strategy at Merrill Lynch. General Electric, once considered the bluest of blue chip companies, is now seen as riskier than Russian debt, based on the the price of those swaps, said Hartnett.

    “In that kind of environment you are still trying to pursue cash if you’re running the company,” said Robert Barbera, chief econmist at the investment firm ITG. “And that means cutting hours or cutting workers.”

    Amid disarray in the credit markets and the free fall in the job market, the stock market has suffered the worst collapse since the Crash of 1929. Based on the broadest measure, stock prices have fallen 56 percent since the Oct., 2007 peak, wiping out some $11.1 trillion of wealth.

    As investors look for a bottom in the economy as a sign of recovery in stocks, Barbera thinks they may have it backwards. As long as the markets remain crippled, layoffs will likely continue, he said.

    “The employment data isn’t going to get better and drive stocks up,” he said. “The markets are going to get better and then we’re going to see better news on Main Street.”

    That’s why many investors and companies are watching closely the government’s efforts to shore up battered banks and get lending flowing again to consumers. After a series of missteps, the government is now subjecting banks to a “stress test” to see if they can withstand a bigger downturn in the economy. Some $700 billion has been spent or committed to provide more capital to the most troubled banks.

    But critics say lending will remain frozen until the government moves more aggressively to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in bad loans that are clogging up the credit system. The Treasury has said it is working on a joint public-private entity to buy those wasting assets, but the announcement is said to be several weeks away.

    One reason for the delay may be the Obama administration’s sluggish pace of filling senior positions at the Treasury. This week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s staffing plans suffered more setbacks, after candidates for two senior jobs withdrew their names from consideration.

    Five weeks into his tenure, Geithner has yet to name a single top deputy or assistant secretary, leaving Treasury without enough people authorized to make decisions or represent the department in meetings with stakeholders. At the department’s office of public affairs, for example, all eleven of the most senior positions listed on the Treasury’s web site are vacant.

    “The crucial thing is we are moving forward,” said Christine Romer, the Chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers on Friday. “Treasury has a very large, very important and talented career staff that is there. Secretary Geithner is putting together a team as fast as he can, but believe me, work is going on night and day. And I think they are going to be able to do what they need to do.”

    Geithner told a Senate panel Wednesday that he hoped “to come up for the committee soon with a full slate of very strong people.”

    But some Wall Street veterans say the financial markets are losing confidence that the Obama adminstration is moving quickly enough to address the biggest crisis it faces.

    “Geithner is stuck there all by himself trying to do everything,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “They don’t have anybody confirmed, and Treasury is a big shop to try to run with one person, especially right now.”

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