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Mar16
California, no longer the dream state
Filed under: Economy, Obama, Politics; Tagged as: bankruptcy, bankruptcy court, barack obama, breaking news, california, detroit, Economy, finance, financial, foreclosure, jobs, layoffs, Politics, president barack obamaNation’s most populous state dealing with high jobless rate 
CONCORD, CA - DECEMBER 17: Job seekers wait in line to enter the "Put Your Talent to Work" job and resource expo
California, a state so large that its economy dwarfs most nations, now has another, less cheery, claim to fame: It is one of the states hardest hit by the country’s unemployment woes.
The California jobless rate hit 10.1 percent in January, up from 5.9 percent when the recession began in December 2007. Only Michigan, South Carolina and Rhode Island reported a higher unemployment rate for the first month of the new year, when the national average was 7.6 percent.
While other states with exceptionally high unemployment rates are suffering from severe downturns in specific sectors that power their economies — such as Michigan’s auto industry — in California, the state is dealing with a broad array of problems, more similar to the country as a whole, economists say.
If you follow the trend of our employment compared to the national employment, it tracks it pretty closely,” said Michael Bernick, former director of the state Employment Development Department and now a labor lawyer. “It’s gone up sharply just as the national rate has, and we’ve continually been higher than the national rate.”
To find one big reason why, you need look no further than the foreclosure signs that line the streets in many of the state’s suburbs and exurbs.
California enjoyed one of the hottest housing markets in the country during the boom, and it was one of the first and hardest-hit by the housing bust. As foreclosures have mounted and homebuilding has dried up, the state has shed construction jobs at an alarming rate. It lost about 130,000 construction jobs from January 2008 through January 2009 alone, according to preliminary calculations from state officials.
But California’s economic woes have spread into other areas as well. The state’s manufacturing sector has shed more than 80,000 jobs over the same period, and its financial sector has cut more than 48,000 jobs, according to the preliminary state data. That’s creating a tough job market for every class of worker, from unskilled laborers to white-collar college graduates.
“It goes across sectors,” said Bernick, adding that it has become common for as many as 40 people to apply for one job opening.
Some argue that the state’s jobless picture may be less bleak than it appears. Howard Roth, chief economist for the state’s Department of Finance, said a change in the way the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the jobless rate has often meant that the state’s monthly numbers initially appear worse than they are, only to be revised later.
Still he acknowledges that California’s jobless rate is likely to remain higher than the rest of the country as it continues to feel the recession more profoundly.
In addition to the housing bust, the state’s financial sector has been hit by the banking crisis, and its many businesses are grappling with the effects of the credit crunch that has squeezed access to financing.
Other sectors of the economy, including technology and tourism, also are suffering as people pull back on spending. The manufacturing industry downturn could be problematic because California’s high cost of land, electricity and other resources make it a less attractive place to locate.
“It’s pretty expensive to manufacture something in California,” Roth said.
The state government also is suffering from a severe budget crunch, which could eventually result in public-sector jobs being cut and further the cycle of economic worries. A 3-year-old drought is hurting the agriculture industry, which Roth said accounts for 5 percent of the state’s economy.
The healthcare and education sector is one of the few bright spots in the state’s bleak jobs picture, and even that sector isn’t faring as well as some would hope.
This is a state that people come to
Steven Levy, of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, believes one major reason the state’s jobless rate comes in higher than the rest of the nation’s is because of a constant influx of new immigrants. He estimates that about 200,000 new legal immigrants come to the state each year, and in this market he says many of those workers may have immediately joined the ranks of the unemployed. The state data shows that more than 300,000 people were added to the labor force last year.“The unemployment rate is higher because this is a state that people come to,” Levy said.
On the other hand, Levy believes unskilled immigrants who entered the country illegally are probably returning home because work is drying up.
Levy expects the state’s jobless rate to continue to edge up, and he warns that it could take some time for things to stabilize and eventually turn around.
“We’re no different than the nation — the numbers are going to get worse before they get better,” he said.
Still, he and other economists take solace in the fact that the state rebounded quickly and powerfully from other recessions including the downturn in the 1980s when it was hit especially hard because of steep cuts to its aerospace industry.
This time around, the job cuts are much more widespread, but they also have come at a much faster pace than in previous recessions.
The government stimulus package may help stem job losses, although some don’t expect it to be a major job creator. Bernick says the state should benefit from its diverse economy as well as a history of entrepreneurship.
“We do have high costs, (traffic) congestion (and) higher taxes, but we have such an entrepreneurial ethos and entrepreneurial culture — and part of that’s an immigrant culture — and that’s really what keeps the economy afloat and would be our hope for the future,” Bernick said.
California economists also note that past recessions brought on doomsday talk of permanently high unemployment rates and other long-term woes for the state, none of which came to fruition. This time around, the state is expected to recover more slowly than in recessions past, but most still see better times ahead.
“I’m pretty confident that we’ll come out of it. We’re pretty resourceful people,” said Roth, the state economist. “But for now, it’s a little hard to forecast exactly when that will happen.”
No CommentsMar5Deloitte and touche raises concerns that GM may not survive
Filed under: Auto, Obama, Politics; Tagged as: auto industry, automobile, automotive industry, bailout, barack obama, breaking news, car, chrysler, detroit, ford, gm, government, jobs, layoffs, Money, Politics, president barack obamaChief executive received compensation valued at $14.9 million
DETROIT – General Motors Corp.’s auditors have raised “substantial doubt” about the troubled automaker’s ability to continue operations, and the company said it may have to seek bankruptcy protection if it can’t execute a huge restructuring plan.The automaker revealed the concerns Thursday in an annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
“The corporation’s recurring losses from operations, stockholders’ deficit, and inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations and sustain its operations raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern,” auditors for the accounting firm Deloitte & Touche LLP wrote in the report.
GM also disclosed Thursday that Chief Executive Rick Wagoner received a pay package worth $14.9 million in 2008, although $11.9 million of his compensation was in stock and options whose value plummeted to $682,000 as GM’s share price sank.
Reports said Thursday that President Barack Obama’s administration is working “around the clock” to shore up the struggling automotive industry. GM said in a statement Thursday that the auditors’ going-concern view has no impact on the automaker’s restructuring steps.
The automaker has received $13.4 billion in federal loans as it tries to survive the worst auto sales climate in 27 years. It is seeking a total of $30 billion from the government. During the past three years it has piled up $82 billion in losses, including $30.9 billion in 2008.
The company faces a March 31 deadline to have signed agreements of concessions from debtholders and the United Auto Workers union to show the government it can become viable again. On Feb. 17 it submitted the restructuring plan to the Treasury Department that includes laying off 47,000 workers worldwide by the end of the year and closing five more U.S. factories.
GM said in its filing that its future depends on successfully executing the plan.
“If we fail to do so for any reason, we would not be able to continue as a going concern and could potentially be forced to seek relief through a filing under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code,” the Detroit-based automaker said in the annual report.
GM, the report said, is highly dependent on auto sales volume, which dropped rapidly last year. “There is no assurance that the global automobile market will recover or that it will not suffer a significant further downturn,” the company wrote.
Companies whose auditors doubt they can continue as a going concern usually are in severe trouble and in most cases head into restructuring, either in or out of court, said John Pottow, a University of Michigan Law School professor who specializes in bankruptcy.
“If you get a qualified going concern audit letter like this, that suggests you are in extreme financial distress and very likely may file for bankruptcy,” he said.
But Harlan Platt, a professor at Northeastern University in Boston who teaches about corporate turnarounds, said the auditors’ concerns don’t mean GM is headed for a bankruptcy filing. The auditors, he said, are merely stating what the world has known for months.
“A company which has borrowed $13.4 billion and has asked for billions more around the world is obviously in trouble,” he said.
Platt said the union concessions and debt restructuring laid out in the government loan terms, plus GM’s own restructuring steps that include shedding unprofitable brands, will make the company healthy again once auto sales recover from current low levels.
“I think the government has forced the hands of everybody,” Platt said. “In 18 months to 24 months, I anticipate they will be profitable, in the black — a mean and lean competitor that will be world-class.”
U.S. auto sales in February dropped to the lowest level since December 1981. Last year, automakers sold 13.2 million vehicles in the U.S., about 3 million less than the 16.1 million sold in 2007. Analysts and auto company executives are predicting sales of just over 10 million this year.
GM said in a statement that the auditor’s opinion would not affect its restructuring plan.
“Once global automotive sales recover and GM’s restructuring actions generate the anticipated savings and benefits, the company is expected to again be able to fund its own operating requirements,” the statement said.
GM has said it wants to avoid bankruptcy protection because it would scare off customers. Car buyers, the company has said, would be reluctant to buy from an automaker in Chapter 11 due to fears that it wouldn’t be around long enough to honor warranties or make replacement parts.
GM, in its viability plan submitted to the Treasury last month, said it explored three bankruptcy scenarios, all of which would cost the government more than $40 billion.
Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson said at the time that the government would be the only place the company could get financing for a Chapter 11 reorganization, because the credit markets are frozen. The worst-case bankruptcy scenario would cost the government $100 billion, Henderson said, because revenue would severely drop due to a lack of sales.
GM warned last month that its auditors may raise the “going concern” doubts, and industry analysts said auditors’ statements may trigger clauses in some of GM’s loans, placing them in default.
But the company said in its filing that it has received waivers of the clauses for its $4.5 billion secured revolving credit facility, a $1.5 billion term loan and a $125 million secured credit facility.
“Consequently, we are not in default of our covenants,” the report said. “If we conclude that there is substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern for the year ending Dec. 31, 2009, we will have to seek similar amendments or waivers at that time.”
GM spokeswoman Julie Gibson said there is no clause in the terms of the government loans that places them in default if the auditors raise doubts about GM’s ability to keep operating.
“That was not a condition of the loan. It’s not in the agreement,” she said.
No CommentsFeb21Saab will go on without GM
Filed under: Auto, World; Tagged as: automobile, bailout, bankruptcy, barack obama, breaking news, cars, chrysler, congress, detroit, ford, gm, government, Politics, president barack obama, washingtonNo CommentsCarmaker Saab, which is owned by General Motors, has had its application to enter a reorganisation process approved by a Swedish court. 
Saab has not made a profit since 2001
An administrator has been appointed to handle the process. Saab is seeking to create a fully independent business.
GM has said that it wants to sell Saab. There had been concerns about the loss-making carmaker after the Swedish government rejected GM’s call for aid. GM took a 50% stake in Saab in 1989 and gained full ownership ten years later. Any restructuring would need the approval of Saab’s creditors, who meet on 6 April.
Expressions of interest
“Today is the beginning of a new chapter in Saab’s history,” said Jan Ake Jonsson, Saab’s managing director. He also said that several companies had expressed interest in Saab, though he declined to name any.“Even though we have not been actively searching for new partners, we have had many knocking on our door showing interest in Saab,” he said. He also revealed that creating a separate unit of Saab and German carmaker Opel, also owned by GM, had not been discussed.
Separately, the German government said that it had not received an official application for a state guarantee from carmaker Opel. The government was waiting for a plan from Opel on its future before making any decisions, a government spokesman said.
Government aid
Despite turning down GM’s request for support, a senior Swedish government official has said the government has not ruled out providing loan guarantees to Saab following its restructuring. “It is not the case that we have closed the door to that. That will depend on what the plans look like,” Joran Hagglund, state secretary at the Swedish Industry Ministry, told the Reuters news agency.Sweden said last year that it would provide up to 25bn Swedish crowns in aid to its auto industry to help it through the economic crisis. Mr Jonsson said Saab expected to be given access to the state funds.
Saab said in a statement that the reorganisation was “the best way to create a truly independent entity that is ready for investment”. In a restructuring plan submitted to the US Treasury this week, GM had said it planned to make Saab an independent business by the start of 2010.
Loss-making
Sales at Saab in 2008 were down 25% on the previous year. The Swedish carmaker has not made a profit since 2001. In 2007
Saab's managing director said this is the beginning of a new chapter
it made an operating loss of 2.19bn Swedish crowns ($248m; £175m), according to regulatory filings.
It estimates its losses in 2008 at around 3bn Swedish crowns and expects a similar loss this year, filings also revealed.
Stephen Pope, chief global strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, believes GM “oversaw the destruction of the Swedish car company’s soul”. “Just look at the current ‘93′ [model] as an example,” he said. “The ‘93′ is just a Saab body skin placed on top of the Vectra from Opel/Vauxhall.”
Protection from creditors
The reorganisation process is the Swedish equivalent of going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, providing protection from creditors. Saab has plans to launch three new models over the next year and a half. “Reorganisation will give us the time and means that help get these products to market while minimising the liquidity impact of Saab on GM,” Mr Jonsson said.Saab said funding for the restructured company would need to be secured during the three-month reorganisation process and would be sought from both public and private sources. During that period, the company is not allowed to pay off any debts accumulated before the reorganisation was declared.
Supplier concerns
Saab employs about 4,100 people in Sweden. Thousands more work for suppliers to the company.
Responding to concerns from Saab’s supplier base, GM Europe said it would establish “a viable mechanism for the timely payment of suppliers’ claims towards Saab”.
GM added that it hoped the gesture would encourage suppliers to support Saab’s efforts to reorganise into an independent business.
Feb21Ford benefits from GM and Chrysler’s stumble
Filed under: Auto, Obama, Politics; Tagged as: automobile, bailout, bankruptcy, barack obama, breaking news, cars, chrysler, congress, detroit, ford, gm, government, Politics, president barack obama, washington1 CommentUnion Givebacks, Rising Market Share Are Tied to Rivals’ Bad News; Why Some Shoppers Switch to Ford
Ford Motor Co., which hasn’t taken a dime of government bailout loans, is benefiting from the troubles of its two cross-town competitors in Detroit, General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC.
GM and Chrysler are required to seek cost concessions from the United Auto Workers union under the terms of their federal loans. That allowed Ford to open parallel talks with the UAW, which has a history of working out the same conditions at each company.
This week, Ford and the UAW reached an agreement to cut pay for laid-off workers, ease work rules and eliminate wage increases tied to the cost of living — two days before GM and Chrysler reached the same deal.

Ford CEO Alan Mulally, left, and GM CEO Rick Wagoner at the Detroit auto show last month. Ford has been winning more U.S. customers.
At the same time, while GM and Chrysler have been hit with a steady stream of negative news — including growing concern they may need to file for bankruptcy protection — Ford has been having more success at luring away its competitors’ customers.
Ford’s share of the U.S. retail market rose in each of the past four months, while GM’s and Chrysler’s fell, Ford said.
In January, 45% of Ford buyers turned in cars or trucks of other manufacturers, up from 38% in August, according to Edmunds.com, an auto-shopping Web site. Meantime, the “conquest rate” for GM’s Chevrolet was 43% last month, down from 49% in August, and for the Chrysler brand, the conquest rate was 60% last month, down from 67% in August, according to Edmunds.
“That’s a sign that there is something definitely going on for Ford,” said Jesse Toprak, an analyst at Edmunds Inc.
For some domestic-car buyers, the bankruptcy talk has been enough to cause them to defect to Ford. John Grassi of Warren, Mich., recently turned in his leased Dodge Grand Caravan minivan and replaced it with a Ford Fusion.
“The future of GM and Chrysler certainly played a part in my decision,” said Mr. Grassi, 50 years old, who works for Warren’s parks and recreation department. “Ford seems to be the most sound in terms of staying solvent. I mean, you look at your warranty and you want that warranty to be good.”
Still, Ford has many challenges. Edmunds’s Mr. Toprak said the company is “weighed down” by the perception of many consumers that it is in the same boat as GM and Chrysler. All auto makers are suffering from the recession and credit crunch, which have sent sales plummeting. In January, Ford’s sales were down 40%. And the company continues to post huge losses, including $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter, which are eating up its cash.
Ford isn’t assuming its trend of recent market share increases will continue. “This market provides limited opportunities. You can’t will yourself to higher sales,” said Ford sales analyst George Pipas.
The terms of the government loans also require GM, Chrysler and the union to work out a way for the companies to put less cash and more stock into trust funds to cover the cost of health care for retired union workers. That has opened the door for similar talks at Ford, although no agreements have been reached yet.
Ford also is believed to be seeking concessions from its bondholders and dealers, also required by the loans given to GM and Chrysler. Ford has been less forthcoming about the state of these negotiations. But Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally said during an earnings call last month that “I really believe from the ongoing conversations that we are having with all the stakeholders and the U.S. government that as we go through this and we continue to take the actions that we need to take that we will not be disadvantaged.”
Meanwhile, Ford seems to have made headway with customers as both GM and Chrysler nearly ran out of money over the past few months. In Centerline, Mich., Bob Thibodeau said he’s noticed more owners of other makes shopping at his Ford dealership. “We have certainly seen a lot more cross-shopping in recent months like we’ve never seen before,” he said.
Ford also may be seeing more customer traffic because it just launched a redesigned version of its F-150 pickup truck, the top-selling vehicle in the country, and its finance arm is healthier than the lenders GM and Chrysler work with, GMAC LLC and Chrysler Financial.
Feb21Tough hiring rules leave Treasury short on staff
Filed under: Obama, Politics, U.S.; Tagged as: automobile, bailout, barack obama, breaking news, cars, detroit, finance, financial, jobs, layoffs, president barack obama, stimulus, timothy geithner, Wall StreetNo CommentsWASHINGTON — The Obama administration’s tough rules about who it will hire and its increasingly rigorous vetting process are complicating Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s team-building efforts, government officials say, at a time when his agency faces a punishing workload brought on by the worst financial crisis in decades.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at the G-7 meeting last week. A slow hiring pace at his agency has forced Mr. Geithner to take on a bigger workload and rely on a skeleton crew of advisers to tackle the financial crisis.
The delay leaves Mr. Geithner without many chief lieutenants while the Treasury is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to try to blunt the financial crisis — and hustling to stay abreast of unfolding events. Mr. Geithner himself is taking on a bigger workload and relying on a skeleton crew of advisers, including some holdovers from former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s staff.
As a result, the agency has had only limited communication with Wall Street about the most effective ways to structure the government’s bailout plan and maximize lender and investor participation. Mr. Geithner’s unveiling of his plan to address the crisis in banking was widely criticized for being shy on details, a problem in part caused by an overstretched team simultaneously grappling with a bailout for homeowners, a giant stimulus package and calls from Detroit auto makers for more aid.
The hiring pace at the Treasury is somewhat slow by historical standards. The Bush administration nominated several Treasury officials to serve under Paul O’Neill in February 2001, though Congress didn’t confirm most until much later in the year.
While Mr. Geithner actually has more troops on hand than many agencies — most others also lack top deputies, or even secretaries — it is an especially trying time for the Treasury, given the economy’s fragile state and Mr. Geithner’s pledge to move quickly and forcefully to confront problems.
Treasury spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said Friday, “The Obama administration has taken an unprecedented level of action toward economic recovery in a very short period of time….There’s a significant amount of work being done, regardless of the normal personnel hurdles that happen during a transition in government.”
After a series of tax-payment issues, which derailed Tom Daschle’s nomination to run the Health and Human Services Department and hurt Mr. Geithner as well, the Obama administration has ratcheted up its scrutiny of potential nominees. Lawyers are poring over several years of potential Treasury appointees’ tax returns and other financial and personal information, such as the legal status of household help.
President Barack Obama also curtailed the ability of lobbyists to work in the administration. The Treasury wants to avoid hiring anyone with ties to a bank that received bailout aid.
The tough rules scuttled the agency’s hiring of at least one top official. The appointment of John Molot, a well-respected Georgetown University law professor, was undone by his personal financial interests, according to people familiar with the matter. The exact problem couldn’t be learned, and Mr. Molot didn’t return a call seeking comment.
Mr. Geithner has identified several people he would like to serve in top posts, and the nominations could be announced soon. Several are already working for Mr. Geithner in an advisory role, but many haven’t yet come on board, including those expected to be tapped for the key posts of deputy Treasury secretary and undersecretary for international affairs.
Among those Mr. Geithner has brought on board in a counselor role are Alan Krueger, who is expected to be chosen as assistant secretary for economic policy; Lee Sachs, who is expected to serve as undersecretary for domestic finance; and Mark Patterson, who will be nominated as Mr. Geithner’s chief of staff.
Mr. Geithner is also relying on a crew of Paulson holdovers, including Seth Wheeler, who helped craft the recently unveiled housing plan; Neel Kashkari, who heads the office running the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program; James Lambright, the TARP chief investment officer; and Steven Shafran, an adviser on financial issues.
“There is a need to get staffed up,” said Scott Talbott, senior vice president for government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable. In particular, many banks say they haven’t been able to get answers from Treasury about how new executive-compensation limits will apply to banks that get government aid.
C. Fred Bergsten, a former Treasury official who is director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the lack of a staff is a particular problem for the Treasury with the approach of the Group of 20 industrial and developing countries meeting in London April 2.
“We all know this is a global economic crisis, the response has to be global, the relations for the G-20 summit are proceeding full blast, and the Treasury does not have its international team in place,” Mr. Bergsten said. “I have met personally with the top British officials organizing the summit. They are eagerly looking for cooperation from U.S. officials, but they couldn’t really get anything until very recently.”

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