Breaking News

We search the news so you don’t have to!

  • Feb
    20

    soup(CNN) — The stock market crashed. Wall Street panicked. People stashed silver and gold under mattresses while businesses shut doors across America.

    We’re talking, of course, about the Great Depression … of 1873.

    That’s the event that Scott Reynolds Nelson cites when asked to give an historical perspective on today’s sputtering economy. The historian says the economic panic of 1873 started with the same toxic mix as today’s crisis: risky mortgages, a stock market dive, and the use of complex financial instruments that few understood.

    “Until 1929, when people used the word[s] Great Depression they referred to 1873,” says Nelson, a professor of history at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.

    “That was a worldwide international depression that started with the banks. That’s what we’re seeing now. This looks like 1873.”

    The nation’s economic crisis is not only causing people to look more closely at their 401(k) account statements. They’re also turning to their history books. Politicians and commentators routinely invoke the Great Depression and other historical events to describe today’s economic crisis.  But how fair is that historical analogy?

    Why Great Depression comparisons may be unfair

    James Kolari, an economist at Texas A&M University, says the nation experienced two “rough” recessions in the mid-1970s and the early 1980s. A recession is generally defined as a decline in the Gross Domestic Product for two or more consecutive quarters.

    He says it’s not fair to compare the current economic crisis to the Great Depression because the federal government was far more passive in the 1920s.

    “We let 15,000 out of 30,000 banks fail,” he says. “Government efforts to jump-start the economy were slow and relatively weak until President [Franklin] Roosevelt came along with the New Deal.”

    Kolari says people can learn more by looking at Japan. He says the U.S. economy is facing the same crisis as Japan in the 1990s when the Japanese economy collapsed from a real estate bubble, and never fully recovered.

    “The Japanese government moved too slowly and not aggressively enough,” he says. “The problems festered.”

    David George, a professor of economics at La Salle University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, says the federal government better protects ordinary people from financial ruin today than during the first stages of the Great Depression. Today we reap the benefits of policies created during that era, George says.

    Roosevelt helped create New Deal legislation to insure banks deposits, and enacted other modern relief efforts like unemployment compensation to help those in distress.

    “By any measure, incomes were lower then than now, and the worst imaginable loss of output today would still keep the nation well above where we were back then,” George says.

    Marjorye [cq] Heeney is not an economist but she definitely knows something about the Great Depression. Heeney, 83, grew up on an Oklahoma farm during the Great Depression and lived through the 1930s Dust Bowl storms. For much of that decade, “black blizzards” — formed by a prolonged drought and poor farming techniques — ravaged the southern Plains.

    Heeney, who now lives in Topeka, Kansas, snorted when told that today’s conditions remind some of the Great Depression. During the Depression, crops failed, few had a job, car or clothes, she says.

    “Everyone had one nail for themselves in the clothes closet,” Henney says.

    Henney says the Great Depression toughened people up. People grew and canned their own food, sewed their own clothes and learned how to make possessions last.

    “No one really came from wealth and nothing was easy,” she says. “But people got by because they had a wonderful spirit of survival. We’re not as gutsy. I don’t know if we have that today.”

    Why this economic period is still frightening

    Victor Matheson, an economist at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts, says the nation’s most recent recession was the dot-com bust, which hit around March of 2001.

    “This recession has already eclipsed the dot-com bust in every fashion,” he says. “During that time, the GDP did not fall much and unemployment did not rise much.”

    Matheson offers one bit of good news, though. He says today’s unemployment rate is not as bad as previous eras. The unemployment rate reached 10.8 percent during the early 1980s, and 25 percent during the Great Depression, he says.

    Yet Matheson says there is an ominous feature to the current situation: The Federal Reserve has already lowered interest rates as far as they can go to around zero percent, but the recession marches on.

    The current recession is so “scary” that Matheson says he has reversed his attitude on Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan. He once opposed it, but now supports it because he can’t think of anything that might work better. He says the economy will not bounce back on its own anytime soon

    “You gotta’ go with what you got,” he says. “The Federal Reserve has loosed all of its cannons, and it has nothing left. Now we’re down to fiscal policy.”

    Nelson, the historian who has studied the panic of 1873, says today’s economy might even be worse than the American economy in 1873.

    “This is a perfect storm: banks failing, stock markets declining and commodity prices dropping,” Nelson says.

    Nelson says it took America four years to recover from the 1873 panic. Tens of thousands of workers — many Civil War veterans — became homeless. Thousands lined up for food and shelter in major cities. The Gilded Age, where wealth was concentrated in the hands of a few “robber barons like John D. Rockefeller,” followed the panic.


    No Comments
  • Feb
    19

    Consumer prices may fall on an annual basis for the first time in more than 50 years. Is this the beginning of a deflationary spiral or just a blip?

    deflationNEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Prices are falling for just about everything these days.

    The government will report its key inflation index Friday morning, the Consumer Price Index, and economists believe the report is likely to show the first year-over-year drop in prices since 1955.

    But while shoppers might see that as good news, economists generally view this as a threat to an already struggling economy.  That’s because deflation, or a widespread drop in prices, is one of the most destructive forces that can hit an economy.

    Lower prices are one way businesses respond to the lack of demand for their products in a slowdown. But if companies can’t make a profit selling their products at the lower price, they’ll respond by cutting production and laying off more people.

    More job losses can cut even further into demand. But even if consumers have jobs and money, they’re likely to hold off on purchases if they come to believe that prices will head even lower. All of which adds up to even more weakness in the economy.

    Deflation is most often associated with the Great Depression. In 1930, consumer prices fell 2.3% and plunged 9% a year later. Prices fell nearly 10% in 1932 before the rate of decline started to slow. Still, prices didn’t turn higher again until 1934.

    The U.S. is nowhere close to that type of deflationary spiral just yet. Economists forecast that the year-over-year drop in January was just 0.1%

    Much of that decline has been driven by lower gas prices. But there is clear evidence that falling prices are spreading beyond the pump. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, fell at a compounded annual rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
    Worries grow about more salary cuts

    The potential economic pain that can be caused by deflation is so great that St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard identified it in a speech Tuesday as the greatest risk facing the economy this year.

    “I think we face some risk — at this point only a risk — of sustained deflation,” he said, adding that “ongoing deflation in the United States might be particularly pernicious.”

    Some economists agree that deflation should now be a major concern.

    “I think we’re on the precipice of outright, full-blown deflation and that we’ll fall into that abyss by this summer,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. “Given the pressures businesses are under to sell something, they’ll have to cut prices and I think they will.”

    Zandi said his biggest worry about deflation is that it may cause more employers to cut wages, which could lead to even lower prices down the road.

    Some companies have already begun to reduce salaries. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is cutting the pay of all of its remaining U.S. salaried staff between 3% and 10% as of May 1.

    “Right now millions of people are losing their jobs, and as painful as that is, it affects only a small fraction of 150 million workers,” Zandi said. “If you’re cutting wages broadly across 150 million people, that’s a far bigger problem for the economy.”
    Deflation or disinflation?

    But other economists argue that falling prices are not a significant threat to the economy.

    They point out that consumer prices fell in the mid-1950’s, a relative period of prosperity. And they add that the current drop in prices may simply be a temporary decline due to an adjustment between supply and demand.

    “To have deflation, you have to have the price structure collapsing,” said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research.

    “Disinflation is the D word we should be using,” he added, meaning that he thinks prices won’t rise dramatically going forward as opposed to continuing to fall.

    Yamarone says the steps taken by the Federal Reserve and Treasury to pump trillions into the nation’s banking system will keep deflation from taking hold the way it did during the Great Depression and in Japan’s “lost decade” that started in the 1990’s.

    “Those policymakers did nothing for decades,” he said. “We’re throwing everything imaginable and several things that are unimaginable at the problem.”

    But Yamarone concedes that prices for many products will be kept in check for awhile, partly because of weak demand in the near-term and demographic changes in the longer term.

    “There is too much capacity for everything right now – too many malls, too many auto plants,” he said “The Boomers are in the process of retiring and 60-year old Boomers don’t need 2.5 cars in the driveway.”


    1 Comment