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MOSCOW – Russia granted transit rights Friday to non-lethal U.S. military supplies headed to Afghanistan but only after apparently pressuring a former Soviet state to close an air base leased to the Americans.

The signal from Moscow: Russia is willing to help on Afghanistan, but only on the Kremlin’s terms.

Kyrgyzstan announced the closure of the Manas air base but American officials suspect that Russia was behind the decision, having long been irritated by the U.S presence in central Asia.

The Russian decision to let U.S. supplies cross its territory opened another route to those through Pakistan now threatened by militant attacks, but U.S. officials were still left scrambling for alternatives to Manas.

Russia wants to open discussions on thorny policy issues that Washington and Moscow have clashed on in recent years — NATO enlargement, missile defense in Europe, a new strategic arms control treaty. More importantly, Russia’s expectation is that Washington must go through Moscow where Central Asia is concerned.

Russia may also be showing Washington that its positions aren’t immovable — particularly where Afghanistan is concerned. Russia fears Afghanistan is collapsing into anarchy, leading to instability or Islamic radicals migrating northward through Central Asia.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia had agreed days earlier to allow transit of U.S. non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan.

“We are now waiting for the American partners to provide a specific request with a quantity and description of cargo,” Lavrov said Friday in remarks broadcast by Vesti-24 TV. “As soon as they do that we will issue relevant permissions.”

He and other officials did not say whether the U.S. will be offered air or land transit corridors. Any new transit routes are unlikely to make up for the loss of Manas, home to tanker planes that refuel warplanes flying over Afghanistan as well as airlifts and medical evacuation operations.

The Kremlin last year signed a framework deal with NATO for transit of non-lethal cargo for coalition forces in Afghanistan and has allowed some alliance members, including Germany, France and Spain, to move supplies across its territory.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Igor Lyakin-Frolov said Germany has been using air and land routes and France so far only has used air transit.

Ground routes through Russia would likely cross into Kazakhstan and then Uzbekistan before entering northern Afghanistan.

The U.S. has reached a preliminary deal with Kazakhstan to use its territory and officials have said they are considering resuming military cooperation with Uzbekistan, which neighbors Afghanistan.

That option is problematic for Washington: Uzbekistan kicked U.S. forces out of a base there after sharp U.S. criticism of the country’s human rights record and the government’s brutal quashing of a 2005 uprising.

Renewing those ties would also open the United States to new accusations it is working with an authoritarian government that tortures its citizens. Uzbekistan has also in the past faced a low-level insurgency from Islamic radicals, though a government crackdown has quelled much of it.

U.S. officials have repeatedly said talks with Kyrgyzstan on the Manas base are still ongoing. U.S. State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid suggested Friday that Kyrgyz officials may be divided over whether to close the base, a source of income for the impoverished nation.

“They’ve not told us they reached a final decision,” Duguid said.

Kyrgyzstan’s parliament delayed a vote on the government’s decision until next week, and some Kyrgyz officials have indicated they may be willing to discuss the issue with the United States.

But National Security Council chief Adakhan Madumarov said Friday the decision to close the base was final.

“There is no doubt the bill to revoke the basing agreement will be ratified,” he said. “The fate of the air base has been sealed.”

In a separate development, Tajikistan’s president pledged Friday that his government would allow the transit of non-military supplies to coalition troops based in neighboring Afghanistan.

Still, Tajik routes are unlikely to greatly affect U.S. supplies because the mountainous country is hard to traverse by land and it already allows U.S. overflights.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Over the last several weeks a growing number of al Qaeda operatives have entered Yemen from Saudi Arabia and have established a renewed network that potentially threatens U.S. and Saudi targets in the region, both U.S. and Yemeni officials have told CNN.

Yemeni soldiers carry the coffin of a comrade killed in September’s attack on the U.S. Embassy.

As a result Yemeni security forces have gone on high alert.

CNN spoke with three U.S. officials and a Yemeni embassy official who outlined new concerns about al Qaeda in Yemen that all three said go beyond the usual worries about the terror organization in Yemen. None of the officials could be identified by name because of the sensitivity of the information.

“There are strong indications of heightened activity in Yemen,” one U.S. official told CNN. “There is real concern in the U.S. government that al Qaeda is trying to mount attacks in Yemen.”

The United States continues to worry about attacks against the U.S. embassy or other U.S. business interests in Yemen the official said. But there are also growing concerns that a renewed al Qaeda network in Yemen could plan attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure or the massive cargo shipping operations that run through the immediate region — potentially disrupting an already shaky world economy.

The official said there is a flow of intelligence information in recent weeks backing up that assessment. “There are clear indications al Qaeda is placing emphasis on Yemen as a place to conduct operations and train operatives.”

Both U.S. officials said one of the major concerns is that a number of al Qaeda operatives have crossed the border from Saudi Arabia since a Saudi crackdown has stepped up. Al Qaeda, he said appears to be looking for a new place in the immediate area where it can still operate.

The officials could not say how many have operatives may have crossed but the second U.S. official said the United States has been watching closely and is seeing ‘gatherings’ of al Qaeda operatives and communication among them. There have also been signs of communication between al Qaeda in Yemen and the al Qaeda leadership believed to be hiding in Pakistan, the first official said.

For its part, 1,000 troops from the Yemeni border guard were put on high alert last week, according to a Yemeni embassy official. “Additional guard have been mobilized to prevent the movement of wanted elements from and to the Yemeni-Saudi border, ” the official said. More than 30 people have already been arrested, he said, and the government of Yemen is developing a new list of “most wanted” fugitives that will be distributed throughout the country.

The Yemenis have been anxious to demonstrate to Washington they are serious about cracking down on al Qaida but the weak central government remains cautious about pressing its tribal leaders.

The U.S. officials said the latest concerns about Yemen are not directly related to the emergence of Said Ali al-Shiri as the new deputy leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen. Al-Shiri was released from U.S. custody in Guantanamo Bay but is now back in Yemen. All of this comes as Saudi Arabia has publicly released a list of 85 terrorists suspects — some of whom are suspected of being in Yemen already.

The U.S. State Department has long warned American citizens about the security risk of traveling to Yemen. Last year armed gunmen attacked the U.S. embassy killing 10 Yemeni police and civilians.

Source

Kyrgyzstan has decided to shut down the Manas Air Base used by NATO to supply its troops in Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been insisting on its closure since 2005.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev explained the decision was made due to economic considerations and the negative public attitude.

“When there were hostilities in progress in Afghanistan with the use of combat aircraft, Kyrgyzstan made its territory available for fighting international terrorism. But at that time, it was one or two years that were being talked about. Eight years have passed. We have repeatedly raised with the United States the matter of economic compensation for the existence of the base in Kyrgyzstan, but we have not been understood,” he said.

Still, Russia and Kyrgyzstan will continue cooperating with the United States on Afghanistan after the closure of the U.S. airbase in the ex-Soviet Central Asian state, the Russian president said on Tuesday.

“We could join our efforts to promote stability in the region, our countries will help the operations underway in the region. We are ready for coordinated action,” said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, adding that the decision to close the Manas base was up to Kyrgyzstan.

Manas airport in Bishkek has been home to a thousand-strong American airbase since 2001, the year Kyrgyzstan joined the anti-terror coalition set up after 9/11. The US base used to be the main hub for moving men, equipment and supplies to US and allied forces operating in nearby Afghanistan because of its 90-minute flying time to the war, instead of seven hours from other launching areas.

US march towards Asia

The September 11 attacks made Central Asia a region of high importance for the US Department of Defense. The United States found the Manas base to be useful for Afghan operations. It was named after Chief Peter Ganci Jr. of the New York City Fire Department, who died in the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center carried out by al-Qaida.

The annual rent paid to the Kyrgyz government was $150 million.

In September 2003 three Kyrgyz citizens were convicted for an attempt to organise an attack on the base. On July 8, 2004 the attempt was repeated by militants believed to belong to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

2005’s Tulip Revolution followed, and President Askar Akayev’s exile from the country made US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld visit Bishkek to support the continued US presence at Manas. But the new Bakiyev administration demanded an increase in the rent for the Pentagon’s use of Manas. Due to the December 4, 2001 agreement the price was a little over $2 million a year, and the new amount was increased to $100-200 million annually. The sum was clearly drawn out of a hat and after prolonged 12-month negotiations the price was agreed at $17.5 million per year.

Back to 2005

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev signed a joint statement October 11 in Bishkek expressing support for the presence of coalition forces in the Kyrgyz Republic “until the mission of fighting terrorism in Afghanistan is completed.”

The Krygyz Republic “recognises the important contribution of the international anti-terrorist Coalition, located at the Ganci Airbase, in strengthening regional stability.

Kyrgyzstan – U.S.relations chilled after incidents between locals and military personnel. In one, a Kyrgyz citizen was

shot dead by a US soldier – who escaped prosecution due to immunity enjoyed by US military at the base. Some think that if more soldiers arrive, there’ll be more trouble.

“I think President Bakiev is concerned that if a conflict starts in Iran, then this base will be used for transporting military personnel, and this may cause social disturbances,” says Leonid Gusev, political expert.

Around half the Kyrgyz population lives below the poverty line. Political protests flare up sometimes, making the country one of the most politically volatile in Central Asia.

Water is the major domestic source of energy for Kyrgyzstan. But the nation doesn’t have enough hydro-electric facilities, and the country has to pay market prices for oil and gas from neighbouring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan, along with China and other members of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization was urging Bishkek to kick the Americans out. Analysts say Russia’s view, however, was driven by differing considerations.

“On the one hand Russia is interested in continuing the operation in Afghanistan, which threatens security in the south. But on the other hand, having the US in Central Asia irritates Moscow, which encourages its Central Asian colleagues to curb this presence,” Arkady Dubnov, an international correspondent, says.

For the withdrawal of the US forces from the base Kyrgyzstan expects to have its debts (about $180 million) written off by Russia in return. Manas turned out to be a burden for Askar Akayev, the toppled Kyrgyz President.Current President Kurmanbek Bakiyev promised Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation members to close the air base; and has now fulfilled his promise.

In 2006 Kyrgyzstan pretended to play hardball with its American guests, demanding they pay $50 million more or quit. The Americans did neither.

With the U.S. vowing to increase the war effort in Afghanistan, this step of Kyrgyzstan makes the task harder for the coalition forces.

Source

(CNN) — The ancient Persians called it “the land of the unruly.” Historians call it “the graveyard of empires.” President Obama calls Afghanistan something else: The “central front” in the battle against terrorism.

President Obama wants to add troops and increase aid to Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has defied armies led by military leaders including Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan. Now Obama’s new administration will attempt to accomplish what few leaders have been able to do: stabilize Afghanistan.  Obama says he wants to start by adding U.S. troops to Afghanistan. Although some believe that a “surge” helped in Iraq, there is no military solution for stabilizing Afghanistan, several military and political experts say.

“Controlling the Afghan people is a losing proposition,” says Stephen Tanner, author of “Afghanistan: A Military History from Alexander the Great to the Fall of the Taliban.” “No one has ever been able to control the country.”

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is struggling to control the country now, Tanner says. The landlocked nation, which is roughly the size of Texas, has no strong national police, he says; its citizens are averse to taxes and a strong central government.

Afghans seem to unite only when a foreign army occupies their country, Tanner says.

“The people are so disunited within that they can’t resist an invader at the border,” Tanner says. “But once you’re in, you’re surrounded by them.”

The resurgence of the Taliban will complicate Obama’s plans as well, Tanner says.

The Taliban are making a comeback. Since 2004, the last year of relative calm, annual acts of violence have increased from about 900 to 8,950 in 2007 and roadside bombs from 325 incidents to 1,469, Tanner says.

U.S. and coalition documents, based on NATO statistics, show more than a 30 percent increase in such attacks from January to December 2008. Last year, attacks by Taliban and al Qaeda forces around the country increased 31 percent. Since January 2008, U.S. and NATO troop deaths rose 26 percent, according to the statistics. Afghan security forces deaths rose 64 percent in the same period.

The government has also degenerated. It has become a corrupt “narco state,” with opium trade providing nearly half of the country’s gross national product, Tanner says.

There are about 30,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, but there are plans to add 15,000 troops. Defense Secretary Robert Gates briefed Obama on Monday about adding U.S. troops to Afghanistan, which would ultimately involve sending two additional combat brigades and a brigade of trainers for Afghan security forces.

It is clear that Obama intends to focus more on Afghanistan. He called it “the central front in our battle against terrorism” in a CBS “Face the Nation” interview.

“I think one of the biggest mistakes we’ve made strategically after 9/11 was to fail to finish the job. … We got distracted by Iraq,” Obama says.

Said T. Jawad, the Afghan ambassador to the United States, says the Afghan people would welcome a temporary increase in U.S. troops to make the country and its borders more secure. But the U.S. military will alienate Afghans if it continues to strike with unmanned Predator drones instead of surgical commando operations to go after the Taliban, Jawad says.

“In the long run, the real security solution is to be found in the capacity of the Afghan police and army,” he says.     Next