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Mar6
Iraq exit strategy will be expensive
Filed under: Military, U.S.; Tagged as: afghanistan, americans, americas army, army, barack obama, breaking news, iraq, Military, pakistan, Politics, president barack obamaFinancial, logistical and political costs of leaving expected to be high 
One of the many large U.S. military bases in Iraq, Forward Operating Base Remagen is seen in a photo relased by the U.S. military in March 2006.
Measured in blood, the price tag in Iraq is absolute: 4,238 Americans have died during America’s six-year war. For Iraqis, the toll is far greater. Icasualties.org, which tracks body counts reported by the media, notes nearly 45,000 civilians have been killed since Iraq’s Shiite-led government was formed in April 2005; another Web site puts the tally since 2003 close to 100,000.
Yet as the Pentagon prepares its exit strategy in line with President Barack Obama’s announced plans to end the war by 2012, a wholly different calculus is emerging. With the end of combat rhetorically on the horizon, the cost of leaving is now measured in financial, logistical and, above all, political terms.
Obama told Marines at Camp Lejeune, N.C., that while the United States would leave Iraq “sovereign, stable and self-reliant,” the price of staying had become too great. “What we will not do is let the pursuit of the perfect stand in the way of achievable goals,” the president said. “We cannot sustain indefinitely a commitment that has put a strain on our military and will cost the American people nearly a trillion dollars.”
But if the mission has been expensive, the price of withdrawal is no zero-sum game.
The United States has spent some $939 billion in combined operations since 2001, and the Obama administration has requested an additional $130 billion to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan next year (on top of the $75.5 billion the administration requested for the remainder of 2009).
How much more it might need is pure guesswork. If Obama sticks to his threshold limit of 50,000 American trainers in Iraq after combat ends — which the president says will happen by August 31, 2010 — the United States could have as many as 80,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan through 2011. Getting them out will cost billions.
According to a January 2009 assessment by the Congressional Budget Office, a combined 30,000 troops in the two war zones could cost $388 billion in additional expenditures through 2019. Bump that up to 75,000 troops, and U.S. taxpayers could shoulder an additional $867 billion before the decade is out — on top of what has already been spent.
Getting the troops home will take time as well as money. Back in 2007, military officials told the Baltimore Sun departing could take nearly two years to complete.
Janet St. Laurent, a defense expert with the U.S. Government Accountability Office, told lawmakers last month that as of November 2008 there were 286 U.S. installations in Iraq that would need closing. Shuttering even the smallest of these will take upwards of two months, she said, while closing installations like Balad Air Force Base — which houses about 24,000 troops and their support staff — could take “longer than 18 months.”
Obama’s new Iraq timeline roughly splits the difference between the 16 months he promised as a candidate and the 23-month timeline favored by some commanders. Some analysts question whether the United States can afford to leave as soon as Obama has suggested.
Stephen Biddle, CFR’s senior fellow for defense policy, says he would have preferred a slower drawdown to maintain the peace between Iraq’s political rivals; he told lawmakers in February that repositioning forces to Afghanistan could leave the United States vulnerable in the event of a downward spiral in Iraq.
Iraqi politicians are equally concerned. Sunni leaders fear clashes with Shiite factions once U.S. troops leave, and others say Arab-Kurdish violence is likely in the power vacuum.
Aware of the risks, the White House has made no firm plans beyond the August 2010 date. Some analysts suggest a substantial contingent of troops should stay at least through national elections in December, a scenario Defense Secretary Robert Gates says is plausible.
On March 2, the Pentagon announced a new brigade rotation to Iraq, meaning force numbers there will stay constant in the near term. And as author and military analyst Tomas E. Ricks writes on his blog, these moves suggest Obama understands that war doesn’t end with a speech, a costly lesson the Bush administration learned the hard way.
No CommentsFeb28Taliban building up its forces: 15,000 fighters
Filed under: Military, Obama, Politics, U.S.; Tagged as: afghanistan, arab, barack obama, breaking news, government, iraq, islamic, muslim, pakistan, Politics, president barack obama, taliban, terrorist, united states, washingtonNo CommentsDelegation visiting U.S. says new strategy for region must include Pakistan WASHINGTON – There may be between 10,000 and 15,000 Taliban fighting inside the country, and the insurgent group is operating in about 17 provinces, Afghanistan’s interior minister said.Mohammad Hanif Atmar offered a rare estimate of the size of his government’s most organized and potent opponent during a visit to Washington. A large delegation of senior Afghan officials was in the U.S. capital this week, along with a delegation from Pakistan. Both groups were weighing in as the new Obama administration forms a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan and a related policy for Pakistan.
Afghan officials said they told their hosts that a new strategy must include better cooperation from Pakistan, where Taliban and other militants have command operations.
Feb28Canadians intercept the Russians in the Arctic
Filed under: Military, World; Tagged as: airforce, american, army, barack obama, breaking news, canadian, Military, Politics, president barack obama, Russian, united states5 Comments
Canadian jets intercepted Russian TU-95 Bear bomber aircraft last week similar to this one.
TORONTO – Fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian bomber in the Arctic as it approached Canadian airspace on the eve of President Barack Obama’s visit to Ottawa last week, Canada’s defense minister said Friday.
Peter MacKay said the bomber never entered Canadian airspace. But he said two Canadian CF-18 jets met the bomber in international airspace and sent a “strong signal that they should back off.”
“They met a Russian aircraft that was approaching Canadian airspace, and as they have done in previous occasions they sent very clear signals that are understood, that the aircraft was to turnaround, turn tail, and head back to their airspace, which it did,” MacKay said.
“I’m not going to stand here and accuse the Russians of having deliberately done this during the presidential visit, but it was a strong coincidence,” he said of the Feb. 18 incident.
Obama arrived in Ottawa the next day and Canadian security services were focused on his arrival. But the Arctic incident did not stretch Canada’s resources, he said.
Russia: A routine air patrol
Russian air force spokesman Vladimir Drik said in a statement carried by the state-owned RIA Novosti news agency that the flight of the Tu-160 bomber had been planned in advance and was part of routine patrols. He said the crew acted according to international agreements and did not violate Canada’s air space.Dmitry Trofimov, a counselor at the Russian Embassy in Ottawa, said Russia has been informing the North American Aerospace Defense Command — or NORAD — of its flights.
Soviet aircraft regularly flew near North American airspace during the Cold War but stopped after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Several years ago, Russian jets resumed these types of flights.
MacKay said Russia gives no warning prior to the flights, despite Canada’s request for Russia to do so. “They simply show up on a radar screen,” MacKay said. “This is not a game at all. Prime Minister Stephen Harper said it is a real concern for Canada.
“I’ve expressed at various times the deep concern our government has with increasingly aggressive Russian actions around the globe and Russian intrusions into our airspace,” Harper said.
“This government has responded every time the Russians have done that. We will continue to respond. We will defend our airspace.”
Competition in the Arctic?
Mackay linked the Russian flights to the competition between Canada, Russia, the U.S. and other countries to secure Arctic resources. With polar ice melting there are new opportunities to exploit the region’s oil, gas and mineral reserves.Canada has said it plans to build a new army training center in the region and a deep-water port in the Arctic.
“This has been a major priority of our government,” MacKay said. “We know that the waters are opening up. We know that other countries have expressed interest in the Arctic.”
Feb27Obama: All combat troups out of Iraq by 2010
Filed under: Military, Obama, Politics; Tagged as: arab, army, barack obama, breaking news, iran, iraq, islamic, Military, muslim, Politics, president barack obama, washington, white houseNo Comments
President Obama says he plans to keep up to 50,000 support troops in Iraq after combat troops leave in 2010.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Obama told congressional leaders Thursday he’s planning to pull all combat troops out of Iraq by August 2010, according to three congressional officials.
Under this scenario, all combat troops will be withdrawn within 19 months of Obama’s January inauguration, three months longer than his promise on the campaign trail.
In a meeting at the White House Thursday evening, Obama also told lawmakers that he plans to keep a range of 35,000 to 50,000 support troops on the ground in Iraq after combat troops are out, the officials said.
All U.S. troops have to be out of Iraq by December 31, 2011, under an agreement the Bush administration signed with the Iraqi government last year.
White House officials confirmed the president will deliver a speech about Iraq to troops at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina on Friday, his first visit to a military base since being sworn into office.
The officials refused to comment on the details of Obama’s plan.
While liberals may be frustrated that Obama is not keeping his campaign promise to the letter, the president could win credit from lawmakers in both parties for giving military commanders more time and flexibility to finish the mission.
What may turn out to be more controversial is the number of noncombat troops that will remain in Iraq under Obama’s plan.
Military officials have stressed that residual, noncombat forces would focus on supplies and logistics to protect U.S. interests in the region. But senior Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have expressed concern over such a large number of troops staying in Iraq after combat forces have left.
One source familiar with the discussion told CNN that Democratic lawmakers complained in private to the president about the remaining troops just as they have in public.
“That’s a little higher number than I expected,” Reid said Thursday before the White House meeting.
Sen. Richard Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat and a close Obama ally, said before the White House meeting that he’s anxious to get troops home. But he defended the administration, saying it is “trying to strike the right balance” between ending the war and maintaining stability in Iraq.
A spokeswoman for Sen. John McCain, the top Republican on the Senate Arms Services committee and an attendee at the White House meeting, told CNN that McCain supports the plan to leave 50,000 troops in Iraq.
Rep. John McHugh, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, said after the White House meeting that Obama assured him the plan to withdraw all combat forces will be revisited if conditions on the ground in Iraq deteriorate.
“The president’s objective to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Iraq is one we should pray for, plan for, and work toward,” McHugh said in a written statement.
“However, I remain concerned that the security situation in Iraq is fragile, and we should work to mitigate any risks to our troops and their mission. I specifically raised these points with the president this evening, and he assured me that he will revisit his plan if the situation on the ground deteriorates and violence increases,” he said.
“Our commanders must have the flexibility they need in order to respond to these challenges, and President Obama assured me that there is a ‘Plan B,’” McHugh said.
Feb24Obama announces Iraq withdrawal
Filed under: Military, Obama, Politics; Tagged as: arab, army, barack obama, breaking news, congress, government, iran, iraq, marines, Military, muslim, pakistan, pentagon, president barack obama, taliban, terrorist, united states, washingtonNo CommentsPresident to announce most U.S. troops will be out in under 19 months 
Obama plans to withdraw most of troops from Iraq by August 2010
WASHINGTON – The United States plans to withdraw most of its troops from Iraq by August 2010, 19 months after President Barack Obama’s inauguration, according to administration officials.
The withdrawal plan would fulfill one of Obama’s central campaign pledges, albeit a little more slowly than he promised. He said he would withdraw troops within 16 months, roughly one brigade a month from the time of his Jan. 20 inauguration. The officials said they expect Obama to make the announcement this week. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not been made public.
The U.S. military will leave behind a residual force, between 30,000 and 50,000 troops, to continue advising and training Iraqi security forces, the two officials said. Also staying beyond the 19 months will be intelligence and surveillance specialists and their equipment, including unmanned aircraft, they said.
A further withdrawal will take place before December 2011, the period by which the U.S. agreed with Iraq to remove all American troops.
A senior White House official said Tuesday that Obama is at least a day away from making a final decision. He further said an announcement on Wednesday was unlikely, but he said that Obama could discuss Iraq during a trip to North Carolina on Friday.
About 142,000 U.S. troops are in Iraq, roughly 14 brigades, about 11,000 above the total in Iraq when President George W. Bush announced in January 2007 that he would “surge” the force to put down the insurgency. He sent an additional 21,000 combat troops to Baghdad and Anbar province.Although the number of combat brigades has dropped from 20 to 14, the U.S. has increased the number of logistical and other support troops. A brigade is usually about 3,000 to 5,000 troops.
Obama’s campaign promise to withdraw troops in 16 months was based on a military estimate on what would be an orderly pace of removing troops, given the logistical difficulties of removing so many people and tons of equipment, a U.S. military official said.
The 19-month strategy is a compromise between commanders and advisers who are worried that security gains could backslide in Iraq and those who think the bulk of U.S. combat work is long since done.
The White House considered at least two other options to withdraw combat forces — one that followed Obama’s 16-month timeline and one that stretched withdrawal over 23 months, the AP reported earlier this month.
Some U.S. commanders have spoken more optimistically in recent months about prospects for reducing the force. Maj. Gen. Michael Oates, who commands U.S. forces in central and southern Iraq, told reporters earlier this month that he believed the gains in stability in that area were now irreversible.
According to officials, Obama had requested a range of options from his top military advisers, including one that would have withdrawn troops in 16 months. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had recently forwarded withdrawal alternatives to the White House for Obama’s consideration.In addition to the U.S. troops to be withdrawn, there is a sizable cadre of contractors who provide services to them who would pack their bags as well. There were 148,050 defense contractor personnel working in Iraq as of December, 39,262 of them U.S. citizens.
There are more than 200 U.S. military installations in Iraq. According to Army officials interviewed by the Government Accountability Office, it can take up to two months to shut down small outposts that hold up to 300 troops. Larger entrenched facilities, like Balad Air Base, could take up to 18 months to close, according to the GAO.
As of Monday, at least 4,250 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count. More than 31,000 have been injured. Tens of thousands of Iraqis have died as well.
Congress has approved more than $657 billion so far for the Iraq war, according to a report last year from the Congressional Research Service.
